President Donald Trump has repeatedly amplified conspiracy theories throughout his political career — from his allegation that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States to his claim that his enemies, not his supporters, were behind the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
Now, a substantial number of Americans say they believe another conspiracy theory involving Trump — that at least one of three attempts on his life were fake.
Just as the conspiracy theories that Trump promoted were false, no evidence has emerged to support the belief that the attempts on his life were not real.
A new poll found nearly one in three Americans believe at least one of the most recent three assassination attempts against Trump were staged. The poll of 1,000 Americans was conducted by YouGov on behalf of NewsGuard, which rates the credibility of online information sources.
It comes as the suspect in the latest assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner pleaded not guilty to multiple federal charges.
What the survey shows
The shooting at the April 25 correspondents’ dinner was the third attempt on Trump’s life since 2024. In July 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was grazed on the ear by a bullet, and a man in the audience was killed. Two months later, authorities arrested an armed man who had staked out Trump on one of his Florida golf courses.
The NewsGuard survey shows that about one in four Americans think the correspondents’ dinner shooting was staged. Among Democrats, about one in three said they believed the incident was fake, while only about one in eight Republicans believed the same thing.
The survey also found that younger respondents, those between the ages of 18 and 29, were more likely to think it was staged than older respondents.
One in four respondents said they believed the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania was staged. More than four in 10 Democrats don’t believe the incident was a legitimate assassination attempt, compared to just 7% of Republicans.
Sixteen percent said they thought the assassination attempt at Trump’s golf club was staged: 26% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans.
Overall, 21% of Democrats said they believe all three attempts were staged, while only 3% of Republicans said the same.
The most recent attempts
The suspect in the correspondents’ dinner shooting, Cole Tomas Allen, pleaded not guilty on Monday to multiple federal charges, including attempting to assassinate the president and assaulting a federal officer with a deadly weapon.
Allen charged through a security checkpoint on the floor above the event, opening fire on Secret Service agents, authorities said. One agent was hit, but his bulletproof vest prevented a serious injury. Allen was taken down and arrested quickly.
The suspect accused of opening fire at the Pennsylvania rally, Thomas Crooks, was killed by a Secret Service sniper. He fired a total of eight shots, grazing then-candidate Trump and hitting three rallygoers, killing one.
Ryan Routh is now serving life in prison for attempting to assassinate Trump on the Florida golf course. A Secret Service agent shot at Routh as he appeared to be pointing an AK 47-style rifle toward the fairway just ahead of Trump. Routh fled but was captured on an interstate highway minutes later.
Routh has denied that he was trying to kill Trump.
Other assassination attempts
Trump has been targeted at least four other times since he first ran for president a decade ago.
In June 2016, a British man approached Trump during a rally at the Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas, asked for an autograph, then tried to grab a nearby police officer’s gun. The man, Michael Sandford, admitted in court that his goal was trying to kill Trump. He was sentenced to 12 months and one day in prison, but only served five months before returning to the United Kingdom.
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Four U.S. presidents have been assassinated: Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy.
In September 2017, during Trump’s first term, Gregory Leingang stole a forklift with the intent to use it to flip Trump’s limousine during a visit to North Dakota. Leingang was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
In September 2020, a letter laced with ricin and addressed to Trump was sent to the White House. Pascale Ferrier, a dual Canadian and French citizen, pleaded guilty in that case and was sentenced to nearly 22 years in prison.
And in April 2024, as Trump was campaigning for a second term, a Pakistani man was sent by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to arrange multiple assassinations and steal documents. Asif Merchant’s targets included not only Trump, but then-President Joe Biden and then-Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley. In March 2026, Merchant was convicted of murder for hire and attempting to commit an act of terrorism. He has not been sentenced but faces up to life in prison.