Lawmakers across the nation dove into a gerrymandering fight ahead of the midterm elections, hoping to give their respective party an edge. But with the election 195 days away, the efforts appeared to net small — if any — political gains.
President Donald Trump ignited the redistricting push several months ago when he instructed Texas Republicans to create a map that solidifies their stronghold. They succeeded in votes and a court battle to ultimately secure five more GOP-friendly districts in the House of Representatives.
Virginia is the latest state to join the effort, where voters narrowly approved a referendum to allow the state’s Democratic-controlled legislature to redraw its congressional map. Legislators seek to add four Democratic seats, in addition to the previous six.
“10-1 here we come,” the state’s Democratic party wrote Tuesday on Facebook.
Trump, who started the national frenzy, lamented on Truth Social Wednesday about the election. He claimed the election was rigged against Republicans with a late push of mail-in ballots. According to The Associated Press, 1.5 million Virginians approved it against 1.4 million votes.
“In addition to everything else, the language on the Referendum was purposefully unintelligible and deceptive,” Trump wrote. “As everyone knows, I am an extraordinarily brilliant person, and even I had no idea what the hell they were talking about in the Referendum, and neither do they!”
Counteracting efforts and pushes set the two parties up to have a projected net-zero change in seats. The gains are based on enacted and proposed maps in California, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Utah and Virginia. The midterm election is on Nov. 3, and in the absence of it, a Democratic Party’s seat gain is projected based on past House elections.
All 435 seats in the House are up for election. Some states will also have U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as local elections.
Gains and losses across the board
Reapportionment resulted in Republicans carving out a possibility of one seat in Missouri, two North Carolina and Ohio, and five in Texas. Democrats created five possible seats in California, one in Utah and four in Virginia as of Wednesday.
Louisiana’s proposed map is excluded from the count as it is central to a U.S. Supreme Court case — Louisiana v. Callais — challenging a provision in the Voting Rights Act that gave Black Americans representation in Congress. If the court rules in favor of the new map, Republicans would secure a one-seat advantage, and the provision would either be struck or revised, based on the court’s opinion.
The Hill reported that millions of dollars from “dark money groups” were involved in Virginia’s election. The publication said the groups are only classified as such because of their 501(c)(4) statuses, which meant groups don’t have to generally list where their funds came from. The referendum was supported by Virginians for Fair Elections, which raised $64.1 million, while the opposition group Virginians for Fair Maps raised $19.8 million.
Redistricting isn’t over
The melee over how congressional boundaries look is far from over, as a number of states still look to redraw maps ahead of candidate filing deadlines.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Florida and South Carolina still have an interest in the horse race for who gets majority representation in Congress. In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis called for a special legislative session to address redistricting, artificial intelligence and medical rights, according to DeSantis’ proclamation. The session would last from April 28 to May 1.
“The Senate is not drafting or producing a map for introduction during the special session,” Florida Senate President Ben Albritton said in an April 15 memo. “It is our expectation that pursuant to the proclamation issued by the Governor and consistent with the process undertaken during the 2022 Special Session on Congressional Reapportionment, a proposal will be transmitted from the Governor’s Office to the Senate for our consideration.”
The session will end on May 1. Candidates have until June 12 to file with the state Division of Elections their intents to run.
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, a Republican, told reporters in December that he wasn’t on board with the effort despite some lawmakers sharing an interest, FOX News reported. The state has a nine-to-one Republican to Democrat split. Rep. Jim Clyburn holds the lone Democratic seat.
Still, State Rep. Jordan Pace filed House Bill 4717 that same month that would eliminate the lone Democrat district. It’s currently in the House Judiciary Committee for review.
“SC has 2/3 Republicans in both House & Senate,” Pace wrote Tuesday on X. “Despite that Republican leadership wouldn’t move my bill to oust Dem Jim Clyburn from a seat he’s been in for 30 years.”
States kill redrawing efforts
Not all states were on board with the tedious map-drawing process.
The NCSL says that lawmakers in Indiana, Maryland and Washington either declined or allowed legislation on redistricting to die as their legislative sessions ended. Indiana legislators faced pushback from Trump after voting down his map that created a possible two-seat GOP majority.
In New York State, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked lawmakers from redrawing maps, according to NPR. It left a lower court’s stay in place, which mandated the state’s redistricting commission to draw maps, not lawmakers.