Former President John F. Kennedy once said, “The one unchangeable certainty is that nothing is certain or unchangeable.” That quote from the former leader of the Democratic Party may best describe his party’s current state in the race for California’s next governor.
That’s especially true after frontrunner and soon-to-be former congressman Eric Swalwell pulled out of the race following serious allegations of sexual misconduct, a move that experts say will ripple into different parts of this campaign.
While Swalwell led the latest polling, “frontrunner” was still a strong word given how split the vote is among the many Democrats attempting to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Swalwell had also received several important endorsements that have since been pulled.
What comes next in this complicated contest?
“I think that’s the big question,” Christian Grose, professor of political science at USC, said to Straight Arrow News.
“It’s really hard to say,” Mark Baldassare, director of the Public Policy Institute of California, told SAN.
Swalwell pulls out
At least five women have now accused Swalwell of sexual assault, including at least one staffer.
That led him to drop out of the race. He made that announcement on social media, where he also apologized for “mistakes” but still denied the allegations.
He also announced he would resign from Congress. The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is now investigating sexual assault allegations.
“It’s not the 1990s,” Grose said. “It’s the era where the candidate would push back against it, which he was trying to do at first. And then, especially as a Democratic candidate, Democratic voters and Democratic women voters, this is completely damaging him, obviously, to the point where he’s dropped out.”
While Swalwell will no longer be out on the campaign trail, his name will still be on the ballot for the primary vote on June 2, which adds more uncertainty to the race.
“There have been times in California where candidates have dropped out of races and the name’s on the ballot, and for a variety of reasons we don’t really know from exit polls or things like that, they still get a sizable share of the vote,” Baldassare said.
Who benefits?
There’s no shortage of candidates who will look to take that 17% of the polling Swalwell had.
Both experts SAN spoke with named the same two candidates as the ones most likely to benefit.
“Katie Porter, who started out very strong, and maybe she will pick up support again, or Tom Steyer, who had, like Eric Swalwell, been gaining some traction among Democratic voters,” Baldassare said.
Steyer was the only other Democrat with more than 10% support in the latest polling, while Porter is the third Democratic candidate to reach that threshold but has since dropped under.
“If you look at the polling that has been done on second choices, both some internal polls that Steyer and Porter released, but also some external polls that Berkeley had done several months ago, Swalwell voters second choices tend to be Porter or Steyer,” Grose said.
Both Baldassare and Grose also mentioned San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has not done well in polling but has raised a lot of money from Silicon Valley.
He recently called the race “wide open.”
What’s next?
How can any of these candidates break away from the pack over the next two months?
“In terms of strategy, it’s ‘don’t have messed up in the past and have it be found out,’” Grose said. “That’s not much of a strategy, but I do feel like that’s a little bit of just what will happen next, and it’s a little bit unpredictable on the Democratic side.”
Baldassare said they need to stick to the major issues amongst their voting base,
“Those include the federal immigration enforcement, the tariffs that have been taking place, and generally where we’re going in terms of support for health care programs,” he said.
Both Steyer and Porter have solid financial standing as well with Porter’s history of fundraising as a congresswoman and Steyer’s bank account balance.
His estimated net worth is more than $2 billion.
One thing that’s likely to come next is a reshuffling of some key endorsements from Democratic leaders and powerful California unions.
That includes many who endorsed Swalwell then pulled back like Sens. Adam Schiff and Ruben Gallego and the California Teachers Association.
“The candidates will be seeking their endorsements because not just the funding but signaling that these are candidates who have met the test for those Democratic and liberal voters,” Baldassare said.
Following what happened with Swalwell, who’d been in California politics for nearly 15 years, some candidates may not be as keen on some of those endorsements.
“There’s a few of the Democratic party elected officials who endorsed Swalwell, who were very close to him,” Grose said. “Their endorsements may not be wanted immediately, because there’s a little bit of a question about how much people knew and when.”
One person who’s unlikely to weigh in on this is Newsom. He’s made it fairly clear he has no plans to endorse anyone to be his successor.
The Swalwell shakeup may have also reinforced that decision for Newsom, with his eyes on the White House in 2028.
“I don’t see how he would benefit from getting involved,” Grose said. “Imagine if he’d endorsed Swalwell, and didn’t know about all these things, and then this came out. It would just be something that he could get tagged with.”
GOP frontrunners
The other two who may benefit from Swalwell’s exit are the two major Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
“I do think there’s a little bit of a benefit for the Republicans, because it’s just another narrative of the Democratic Party in California, in terms of its gubernatorial candidates, just being a big mess,” Grose said.
There has been some concern within the Democratic party of a scenario where Hilton and Bianco could be the two on the general election ballot come November.
While that fear could cause the party to unite and rally around one candidate, the impact of the Swalwell scandal again has an impact.
“A lot of Democratic elected officials were lining up behind one candidate, and then these revelations came out, and they probably regret doing that,” Grose said.
President Donald Trump has finally weighed in on the race, endorsing Hilton.
There’s a chance that could push Hilton ahead on the GOP side, although some Republicans are staying out of it.
“We also saw the Republican Party Convention in California, like the Democratic Party Convention, decide that they weren’t going to endorse anyone for the gubernatorial primary,” Baldassare said. “So, kind of a mixed message there.”
Even if a Trump endorsement does help Hilton in the primary amongst the friendly GOP voters, it may really hurt him if he gets to the general election.
The president has only a 27% approval rating in heavily blue California.
“The Hilton Trump endorsement helps in the primary, but it’s just completely toxic in the general,” Grose said.